Since the start of 2013, I've been incredibly busy developing new systems.
Unfortunately, of the 5 new systems I developed (2 of which I am currently trading live), all are mechanical, rule based systems (nothing discretionary).
Plus, with my work on the horizon (webinars at Big Mike Trading and a couple of other places, in addition to a bunch of my own webinars), I won't be rolling out a discretionary system anytime soon.
BUT, I am still learning a new method. Maybe in a few months, maybe a year (who knows?), I'll be ready to trade it.
So, with that I am going to retire this blog, at least for the time being.
In the meantime, if you want to keep tabs on some of my real time trading, just click here: http://kjtrading-new.autotradenow.com/
If you have liked reading what I have to say, please put your name on my mailing list at www.kjtradingsystems.com. That way, you'll be informed about all the upcoming webinars, etc.
Also, I will be giving away 1 or 2 free systems in the next few months, but you'll only hear about it if you are on my list.
Thanks, and Happy Trading!
Friday, July 5, 2013
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Where I Am At
I apologize that I haven't been keeping this blog going, but I have been busy with many trading related activities.
A couple of things that may interest you...
1. I will be giving a 30 minute webinar next week on Jan 30: http://tradersexclusive.com/educational_webinars_for_traders/
2. For some reason, a lot of people have been inquiring about my one on one mentoring. I only have 1 or 2 spots left: http://www.kjtradingsystems.com/id124.html
3. I will be presenting in March at Big Mike Trading. I'll be giving away the code to a complete crude oil system (now I just have to develop it!).
But as a full time trader, of course most of my time is spent creating new systems. Here is what I am working on:
1. I completed a Point and Figure based system for the Euro. Completely rule based / mechanical. It went into incubation beginning of January. $2500 profit this month per contract.
2. I just wrapped up development on an intraday ES system. Completely rule based / mechanical. I may offer this one to the public via subscription.
3. My discretionary system is still transforming into a mechanical strategy. It will probably be on the Euro, will be very aggressive in money management, and I may trade it in the World Cup contest. I hope to have this ready soon.
So, I know some of you were hoping for a complete discretionary system from me. As it stands right now, I am not so sure that will happen. It really depends on how #3 above goes.
Thanks!
A couple of things that may interest you...
1. I will be giving a 30 minute webinar next week on Jan 30: http://tradersexclusive.com/educational_webinars_for_traders/
2. For some reason, a lot of people have been inquiring about my one on one mentoring. I only have 1 or 2 spots left: http://www.kjtradingsystems.com/id124.html
3. I will be presenting in March at Big Mike Trading. I'll be giving away the code to a complete crude oil system (now I just have to develop it!).
But as a full time trader, of course most of my time is spent creating new systems. Here is what I am working on:
1. I completed a Point and Figure based system for the Euro. Completely rule based / mechanical. It went into incubation beginning of January. $2500 profit this month per contract.
2. I just wrapped up development on an intraday ES system. Completely rule based / mechanical. I may offer this one to the public via subscription.
3. My discretionary system is still transforming into a mechanical strategy. It will probably be on the Euro, will be very aggressive in money management, and I may trade it in the World Cup contest. I hope to have this ready soon.
So, I know some of you were hoping for a complete discretionary system from me. As it stands right now, I am not so sure that will happen. It really depends on how #3 above goes.
Thanks!
Friday, January 11, 2013
Quick Update
2 weeks into the new year, and I have not gotten very far with my discretionary system. Seems like everytime I work on it, it transforms from a discretionary approach to a mechanical approach.
On the positive side, I have created a couple of new mechanical systems that I have in incubation.
On the negative, a discretionary system is proving to be somewhat elusive.
The work continues, though!
On the positive side, I have created a couple of new mechanical systems that I have in incubation.
On the negative, a discretionary system is proving to be somewhat elusive.
The work continues, though!
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Update - Discretionary System
If you've been following this blog since the beginning, you know that is has changed a bit over time:
The blog started out as a journal of performance for a mechanical system that I was trading in the World Cup Trading competition.
And then my corrupt broker PFG folded in July, taking most of my account with them. And the idea for my blog!
A few months ago, I decided to document my development of a discretionary system - my historical weak point in trading.
Along the way, I tried to provide useful information, such as my 15 part "Trading Process" series. Or my free webinars (here is upcoming one on Monday Dec 17th: "Trading Plan For 2013" on Dec 17, 2012 8:30 PM EST at: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2901032090057478144)
So, as of mid-December, here is where I stand:
I don't have a discretionary system for 6E (Euro currency) ready to go yet, but I have a couple of pretty good, but separate, ideas in development. With some dedication in early January, I may have something ready to go in late Jan or Feb 2013.
I have a little chunk of money allocated for this new system. I may or may not enter it in the World Cup competition. I may or may not post it on Collective2.com, where a third party tracks some of my other strategies (here is just one: http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/system71417784).
My question for you, dear reader, is where do you want this blog to go. Some options:
A. I can continue discussing my discretionary system development, and then actually trade it.
B. I can talk about trading in general.
C. I can talk about any system I enter in a contest, which may also be point A above.
D. I can talk about other systems I currently trade (full disclosure: some of these I also offer for sale, some I do not).
E. None of the above.
I want to keep this blog informative and relevant. I know so far it has been, since it was nominated for Best Trading Blog of 2012 (please vote below).
So, if you get a chance, please leave a comment, and tell me what you'd like to see in this blog. I'm listening!
The blog started out as a journal of performance for a mechanical system that I was trading in the World Cup Trading competition.
And then my corrupt broker PFG folded in July, taking most of my account with them. And the idea for my blog!
A few months ago, I decided to document my development of a discretionary system - my historical weak point in trading.
Along the way, I tried to provide useful information, such as my 15 part "Trading Process" series. Or my free webinars (here is upcoming one on Monday Dec 17th: "Trading Plan For 2013" on Dec 17, 2012 8:30 PM EST at: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2901032090057478144)
So, as of mid-December, here is where I stand:
I don't have a discretionary system for 6E (Euro currency) ready to go yet, but I have a couple of pretty good, but separate, ideas in development. With some dedication in early January, I may have something ready to go in late Jan or Feb 2013.
I have a little chunk of money allocated for this new system. I may or may not enter it in the World Cup competition. I may or may not post it on Collective2.com, where a third party tracks some of my other strategies (here is just one: http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/system71417784).
My question for you, dear reader, is where do you want this blog to go. Some options:
A. I can continue discussing my discretionary system development, and then actually trade it.
B. I can talk about trading in general.
C. I can talk about any system I enter in a contest, which may also be point A above.
D. I can talk about other systems I currently trade (full disclosure: some of these I also offer for sale, some I do not).
E. None of the above.
I want to keep this blog informative and relevant. I know so far it has been, since it was nominated for Best Trading Blog of 2012 (please vote below).
So, if you get a chance, please leave a comment, and tell me what you'd like to see in this blog. I'm listening!
*******************************************************************
I am honored that my blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog at http://2012tradingcontest.blogspot.com, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Vote here: http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!
We have a winner in our Trading Platform Survey. E-mail address ny11***@yahoo.com was the winner of a copy of my Congress ES Trading System. Congratulations to him or her, and thanks to everyone who contributed.
Here are the results, of approximately 150 surveys:
What trading platform do you use?
I was surprised that 7% use no software at all! Pencil and paper folk?
About 55% of platform users described themselves as being at a beginner or intermediate proficiency level, and 45% were advanced or expert.
51% of respondents have not bought any type of indicator or trading system in the past year. A Do-It-Yourself crowd!!
For the 49% who had bought a system/indicator, vendor reputation was far and away the most important criteria.
Not surprisingly, most (>70%) system/indicator buyers thought it was "extremely important" that the package they buy be in their platform language.
Finally, 85% of people were neutral to very satisfied with what they purchased. Only 15% of people were dissatisfied.
THANKS again for participating!
Here are the results, of approximately 150 surveys:
What trading platform do you use?
About 55% of platform users described themselves as being at a beginner or intermediate proficiency level, and 45% were advanced or expert.
51% of respondents have not bought any type of indicator or trading system in the past year. A Do-It-Yourself crowd!!
For the 49% who had bought a system/indicator, vendor reputation was far and away the most important criteria.
Not surprisingly, most (>70%) system/indicator buyers thought it was "extremely important" that the package they buy be in their platform language.
Finally, 85% of people were neutral to very satisfied with what they purchased. Only 15% of people were dissatisfied.
THANKS again for participating!
************************************************************************
I am honored that my blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog at http://2012tradingcontest.blogspot.com, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Vote here: http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc
Sunday, December 9, 2012
New Survey
I am giving away a free copy of my Congress ES Trading System, valued at $149, to one lucky winner who answers a short 6 question survey.
You can read about my Congress ES Trading System here: http://www.kjtradingsystems.com/congress.html
Of course, I will share results with everyone on this blog.
Please click here to take the survey:
Thanks in advance!
Kevin
Only one entry per e-mail address allowed.
************************************************************************
I am honored that my blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog at http://2012tradingcontest.blogspot.com, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Vote here: http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc
Friday, December 7, 2012
Survey - Final Results
*********************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Vote here: http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc
********************************************************************
********************************************************************
********************************************************************
So, what "takeaways" can we glean from this survey? Here are a few:
Pure mechanical traders are more profitable than hybrid traders, who are more profitable than pure discretionary traders.
Traders who backtest their idea for more than 1 year tend to be more profitable than those who do not.
Trading is TOUGH. You are more likely to lose than you are to win.
Thanks to everyone who participated!
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Survey Results - Mechanical Traders
Taken as a group, people who identify themselves as 100% mechanical traders are more profitable than either pure discretionary or hybrid traders.
Only 27% of pure discretionary traders reported that they were profitable the last 3 years. The number jumps to 43% for hybrid traders, and then jumps again to 55% for mechanical traders.
So, according to this survey, you are twice as likely to be profitable if you are 100% mechanical, as opposed to 100% discretionary.
The other interesting point here is that mechanical traders who backtest for more than 1 year tend to be more profitable. Not surprising to me, but hopefully it is enlightening to those traders out there who feel long backtests are pointless.
Only 27% of pure discretionary traders reported that they were profitable the last 3 years. The number jumps to 43% for hybrid traders, and then jumps again to 55% for mechanical traders.
So, according to this survey, you are twice as likely to be profitable if you are 100% mechanical, as opposed to 100% discretionary.
The other interesting point here is that mechanical traders who backtest for more than 1 year tend to be more profitable. Not surprising to me, but hopefully it is enlightening to those traders out there who feel long backtests are pointless.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Survey Results - Hybrid Traders
For people who identified themselves as "hybrid" traders - that is, they use a mix of discretionary and mechanical methods, the survey shows the following:
Most hybrid traders lose
Hybrid traders who backtest for longer periods of time have a higher chance of success
Most hybrid traders lose
Hybrid traders who backtest for longer periods of time have a higher chance of success
Monday, December 3, 2012
Survey Results - Discretionary Traders
Of the people who identified themselves as discretionary traders, most perform backtests less than 1 year duration. Could this be why most are losing money?
*********************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
*********************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Survey Results - Part 1
Thanks to everyone who participated in my survey. The next 2 or 3 posts will present the results. Hopefully, knowing the results of a large group of people will give you some guidance into what is "best."
As a reminder, here were the questions:
Here are the results:
1. What kind of trader would you consider yourself?
2. Do you perform historical testing before trading a strategy with real money?
3. For the past 3 years, how would you describe your real money trading results?
In the next post, I'll dig a bit deeper and try to find out answers to questions like:
"What type of trader is more likely to be profitable?"
"Does backtesting length influence future profits?"
Etc.
STAY TUNED!!
************************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
As a reminder, here were the questions:
1. What kind of trader would you consider yourself?
2. Do you perform historical testing before trading a strategy with real money?
3. For the past 3 years, how would you describe your real money trading results?
Here are the results:
1. What kind of trader would you consider yourself?
2. Do you perform historical testing before trading a strategy with real money?
3. For the past 3 years, how would you describe your real money trading results?
In the next post, I'll dig a bit deeper and try to find out answers to questions like:
"What type of trader is more likely to be profitable?"
"Does backtesting length influence future profits?"
Etc.
STAY TUNED!!
************************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Vote here: http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc
Monday, November 26, 2012
Survey Still Open
I still have the 3 question survey open. The link is below, and I will share the results with everyone.
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/QP9QVN2
Thanks in advance!
************************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/QP9QVN2
Thanks in advance!
************************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Vote here: http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc
Monday, November 19, 2012
Discretionary Trading - Update
I am still testing and evaluating possible techniques to trade, so I have not gone "live" yet. I am struggling with a couple of things right now:
1. How much historical testing should I do?
2. How much discretion should I build into the system?
I have thought a lot about these topics, but I still don't have solid answers to these questions.
I suspect I am not alone in this regard. So, I have created a survey for all readers. It is simple, anonymous and only 3 questions long. I will share results in a week or so with everyone who takes the survey. I think it will be a big help to all of us.
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/QP9QVN2
Thanks in advance!
************************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
1. How much historical testing should I do?
2. How much discretion should I build into the system?
I have thought a lot about these topics, but I still don't have solid answers to these questions.
I suspect I am not alone in this regard. So, I have created a survey for all readers. It is simple, anonymous and only 3 questions long. I will share results in a week or so with everyone who takes the survey. I think it will be a big help to all of us.
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/QP9QVN2
Thanks in advance!
************************************************************************
I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.
If you like my blog, please vote!
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Vote here: http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc
Friday, November 16, 2012
Award Finalist - Please Vote For This Blog!
This blog has been honored with a nomination by TraderPlanet.com for the Best Trading Blog of 2012.
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
If you've enjoyed this blog, from my contest account discussion to trading process steps to my current journey into discretionary trading, please vote for me below.
Your votes will encourage me to continue to provide quality information to you!
Thanks!
Kevin
A Robot Trader Becomes Human
Vote here: http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Whoops - Sorry!
As you may know, I have fairly regular free webinars on trading. I try to announce them on this blog. Unfortunately, my last one, "Unorthodox Entries," I neglected to inform blog readers about.
Good news is that I recorded it, so if you want to listen to it, just shoot me an e-mail. I will immediately respond with the link for you. kdavey @ kjtradingsystems.com
*******************************************************************
Now for my discretionary system...
I gave up on the Forex broker I was going to use, as I could not trust their charting platform. I got my deposit back over the weekend. The odd thing was I was actually a bit worried about getting it back - that's how "spooked" I am about this whole industry since the MFG and PFG scandals.
As far as a new forex broker, I am now looking at Euro futures, not Forex. This is a major switch. I trust the data better, don't have to worry about dealing desks, and it is more regulated (although being more regulated, I'll admit, did not help me with PFG!). But the position sizing will be tougher (which means, I'll have to risk more to get the same return), and I'll probably pay more in transaction costs. Pros and cons to each market.
I am still looking at entries for this system. I don't know if it is good or bad, but I seem to be turning this project into a mechanical system - one that can be automated. I'm not sure that is where I want to go - it certainly is not where I planned to go - but I am keeping an open mind.
Maybe I am evolving this way because historically I much more successful at mechanical trading (for example: my World Cup contest accts, my Trender, SFE and Congress ES systems on my website) than I am at discretionary trading. That is not to say that I am a "bad" discretionary trader, but I was not a consistent earner with such a method, not necessarily a net loser. To me, that is "bad."
So, we'll see where this journey takes us!
Good news is that I recorded it, so if you want to listen to it, just shoot me an e-mail. I will immediately respond with the link for you. kdavey @ kjtradingsystems.com
*******************************************************************
Now for my discretionary system...
I gave up on the Forex broker I was going to use, as I could not trust their charting platform. I got my deposit back over the weekend. The odd thing was I was actually a bit worried about getting it back - that's how "spooked" I am about this whole industry since the MFG and PFG scandals.
As far as a new forex broker, I am now looking at Euro futures, not Forex. This is a major switch. I trust the data better, don't have to worry about dealing desks, and it is more regulated (although being more regulated, I'll admit, did not help me with PFG!). But the position sizing will be tougher (which means, I'll have to risk more to get the same return), and I'll probably pay more in transaction costs. Pros and cons to each market.
I am still looking at entries for this system. I don't know if it is good or bad, but I seem to be turning this project into a mechanical system - one that can be automated. I'm not sure that is where I want to go - it certainly is not where I planned to go - but I am keeping an open mind.
Maybe I am evolving this way because historically I much more successful at mechanical trading (for example: my World Cup contest accts, my Trender, SFE and Congress ES systems on my website) than I am at discretionary trading. That is not to say that I am a "bad" discretionary trader, but I was not a consistent earner with such a method, not necessarily a net loser. To me, that is "bad."
So, we'll see where this journey takes us!
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Houston, We Have A Problem
Well, it seems like I cannot get this strategy off the ground and trading real money...
My latest problem is on 1 minute bars, with the proprietary platform of my forex broker. If I use their MT4 interface, everything is fine. If I use their proprietary platform, and shut it down and turn it back on, I get different looking 1 minute bars. See below:
Since I did my backtesting with this platform, I consider ALL RESULTS INVALID.
So, I have multiple options at this point:
1. Just keep going with the incorrect proprietary platform, realizing that my live results will probably not match my backtest, due to the charting issue above
2. Use my broker's MT4 platform (which has a terrible order entry window, although I could change it if I learned MT4 programming). I'd redo the backtest in this platform
3. Go to a different Forex broker, but likely pay higher spreads. Redo backtest.
4. Use the Euro futures instead, although this means that some of my position sizing (using micro and mini Forex lots, in addition to regular size lots) will be invalid. Redo backtest, although I could likely program most of what I am doing.
5. Chuck the whole project, move on to something else.
I am going to evaluate each option, and come to a decision soon. Until then, no paper trading, and no real money trading. VERY disappointing!
My latest problem is on 1 minute bars, with the proprietary platform of my forex broker. If I use their MT4 interface, everything is fine. If I use their proprietary platform, and shut it down and turn it back on, I get different looking 1 minute bars. See below:
Since I did my backtesting with this platform, I consider ALL RESULTS INVALID.
So, I have multiple options at this point:
1. Just keep going with the incorrect proprietary platform, realizing that my live results will probably not match my backtest, due to the charting issue above
2. Use my broker's MT4 platform (which has a terrible order entry window, although I could change it if I learned MT4 programming). I'd redo the backtest in this platform
3. Go to a different Forex broker, but likely pay higher spreads. Redo backtest.
4. Use the Euro futures instead, although this means that some of my position sizing (using micro and mini Forex lots, in addition to regular size lots) will be invalid. Redo backtest, although I could likely program most of what I am doing.
5. Chuck the whole project, move on to something else.
I am going to evaluate each option, and come to a decision soon. Until then, no paper trading, and no real money trading. VERY disappointing!
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Getting Closer
OK, I am getting closer to trading live. Here's an update...
As I mentioned before, at least some of my trading strategy is based on Bob Volman's Forex Price Action Scalping book. He uses a 70 tick chart. I am not, because:
1. The tick count for my broker's platform depends on the first bar in memory, which is different each time. So, trying to backtest it yields unreliable results - sometimes a signal will trigger, but if tick count is off a little bit, sometimes it won't.
2. Tick count in Forex mean different things to different brokers, AND probably will not match up well. I want a method that is broker agnostic.
So, I will be using a 1 minute chart. Then, I should be able to pick just about any broker, should the need arise. Plus, I really do not like the platform of my current broker, so I may move soon (I do like their spreads, though).
I am still at 2 unique entries, and 50/50 entries (meaning, for example, 10 pip profit or 10 pip stop). Of course, those aren;t really 50/50 entries once you factor in the spread.
Volman also advocates using market orders to enter. I may do this, but I am also looking at limit and stop entries, to get more consistent fills. I think entering at market all the time will cost me money.
SO, the plan is to trade sim for a few more days, and maybe go live mid week.
I still owe you a post on how I'll track my performance, and that will be coming soon...
As I mentioned before, at least some of my trading strategy is based on Bob Volman's Forex Price Action Scalping book. He uses a 70 tick chart. I am not, because:
1. The tick count for my broker's platform depends on the first bar in memory, which is different each time. So, trying to backtest it yields unreliable results - sometimes a signal will trigger, but if tick count is off a little bit, sometimes it won't.
2. Tick count in Forex mean different things to different brokers, AND probably will not match up well. I want a method that is broker agnostic.
So, I will be using a 1 minute chart. Then, I should be able to pick just about any broker, should the need arise. Plus, I really do not like the platform of my current broker, so I may move soon (I do like their spreads, though).
I am still at 2 unique entries, and 50/50 entries (meaning, for example, 10 pip profit or 10 pip stop). Of course, those aren;t really 50/50 entries once you factor in the spread.
Volman also advocates using market orders to enter. I may do this, but I am also looking at limit and stop entries, to get more consistent fills. I think entering at market all the time will cost me money.
SO, the plan is to trade sim for a few more days, and maybe go live mid week.
I still owe you a post on how I'll track my performance, and that will be coming soon...
Friday, November 2, 2012
Still Working out Details
I am still working out some details on my new discretionary system. I think I am on the right track, and I may start live on Monday.
So, be sure to check back Monday afternoon/evening!
So, be sure to check back Monday afternoon/evening!
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Live Trading - POSTPONED!
As I mentioned earlier, I am using a 70 tick chart for my charts. I assumed that the tick count started at the beginning of the session each day. With the platform I am using, that is apparently NOT the case.
I noticed this because of end of session, I print a screenshot of my entries and exits. When I went back to the platform (and closing and opening it), I discovered completely different looking charts. It looks like the start point for counting is not session start. Maybe it is the first bar in memory. I don't know.
What does this mean?
Well, for starters, it means that all the backtesting I did is worthless. So, I have to go back and do it again. This time I will use 30 second bars, or 1 or 2 minute bars.
Bottom Line: I am not ready to trade this live, until I re-evaluate things. Maybe the beginning of next week. I am in a hurry to trade live, but not in a hurry to lose money!
I noticed this because of end of session, I print a screenshot of my entries and exits. When I went back to the platform (and closing and opening it), I discovered completely different looking charts. It looks like the start point for counting is not session start. Maybe it is the first bar in memory. I don't know.
What does this mean?
Well, for starters, it means that all the backtesting I did is worthless. So, I have to go back and do it again. This time I will use 30 second bars, or 1 or 2 minute bars.
Bottom Line: I am not ready to trade this live, until I re-evaluate things. Maybe the beginning of next week. I am in a hurry to trade live, but not in a hurry to lose money!
Monday, October 29, 2012
My Entries and Exits
I will talk about "Tracking My Progress" in the next post...
OK, so I am on track for starting live trading Thursday. After spending some time this weekend working on things, I have settled on 2 basic entries, and 1 simple exit.
Earlier, I had mentioned that I was using the book by Volman** to guide my discretionary trading with this system. After working through the book, though, I now will be using a very, very small portion of his book, at least initially.
Here are my entry and exit rules, and other assorted info...
1. Volman's** Second Break entry. BUT, I have modified it. I have specific criteria for when it applies, and even then, the signal could be in either direction, depending on the shape of the pattern. My technique is unique and unorthodox, and I probably will not be sharing any more about it.
2. Entry 2 is based on a specific chart pattern. It occurs multiple times per day, usually a couple of times between 9-11 AM. The trick is that once the pattern is established, it can go long or short depending on the shape. Again, unique and unorthodox.
Because I think my edge is in the entries, I probably will not be showing exact details on it. I may show the bar of entry, and direction - we will see.
3. I will take entries in sequential order. If, for example, Signal 1 triggers a long, and 3 bars later, signal 2 triggers a short, I will reverse to a net short position. If I am long, and another long signal comes along, I'll just ignore that second signal.
4. Profit target always 10 pips. Stop Loss always 10 pips. No changing or moving of either one. Exit at end of day, if neither is hit.
5. Trade from 9-11 AM ET. But, I won't neglect an entry at 8:58 AM, or 11:04 AM, if I am at my trading station.
6. Usually, these 2 entries will have about 4 trades per day total. My goal is to extract 5 pips per day. In backtest and real time simulation, I have averaged about 13 pips per day. But, backtests and sim testing is always better than real life, right?
7. Doing the math, with 4 trades per day, and aiming for 5 pips per day, if I average 56% winning trades, I will achieve my goal. I think I can get to 60-65% winning trades, which would mean 8-12 pips per day. 50% wins or less, and I am a net loser.
8. I have not included slippage in item #7 calculations. Also, with the spread, a totally random strategy should win about 45% or so. So, I have to do a lot better than random!)
** The book "Forex Price Action Scalping - by Bob Volman"
OK, so I am on track for starting live trading Thursday. After spending some time this weekend working on things, I have settled on 2 basic entries, and 1 simple exit.
Earlier, I had mentioned that I was using the book by Volman** to guide my discretionary trading with this system. After working through the book, though, I now will be using a very, very small portion of his book, at least initially.
Here are my entry and exit rules, and other assorted info...
1. Volman's** Second Break entry. BUT, I have modified it. I have specific criteria for when it applies, and even then, the signal could be in either direction, depending on the shape of the pattern. My technique is unique and unorthodox, and I probably will not be sharing any more about it.
2. Entry 2 is based on a specific chart pattern. It occurs multiple times per day, usually a couple of times between 9-11 AM. The trick is that once the pattern is established, it can go long or short depending on the shape. Again, unique and unorthodox.
Because I think my edge is in the entries, I probably will not be showing exact details on it. I may show the bar of entry, and direction - we will see.
3. I will take entries in sequential order. If, for example, Signal 1 triggers a long, and 3 bars later, signal 2 triggers a short, I will reverse to a net short position. If I am long, and another long signal comes along, I'll just ignore that second signal.
4. Profit target always 10 pips. Stop Loss always 10 pips. No changing or moving of either one. Exit at end of day, if neither is hit.
5. Trade from 9-11 AM ET. But, I won't neglect an entry at 8:58 AM, or 11:04 AM, if I am at my trading station.
6. Usually, these 2 entries will have about 4 trades per day total. My goal is to extract 5 pips per day. In backtest and real time simulation, I have averaged about 13 pips per day. But, backtests and sim testing is always better than real life, right?
7. Doing the math, with 4 trades per day, and aiming for 5 pips per day, if I average 56% winning trades, I will achieve my goal. I think I can get to 60-65% winning trades, which would mean 8-12 pips per day. 50% wins or less, and I am a net loser.
8. I have not included slippage in item #7 calculations. Also, with the spread, a totally random strategy should win about 45% or so. So, I have to do a lot better than random!)
** The book "Forex Price Action Scalping - by Bob Volman"
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