Wednesday, July 4, 2012

62% Max Drawdown - Yikes!!!!

Well, I recovered a tad from my low point.  Still, I'm down about 35% on the year, with a whopping 62% maximum drawdown.

You know the warnings at the bottom of the screen during reckless TV commercials?  I think that warning should be my new blog title:

"Don't Attempt This At Home!"

Seriously, I hope my adventures in this contest make everyone realize that trading can be a roller coaster, can be nerve wracking and can be hazardous to your financial health!



3 comments:

  1. Hello Kevin,

    is the contest system "broken", below the 5% line? (as in your post "Is it broken?")

    If so, how would you procede, would you give it some more room or discard it inmediately?

    Regards,
    Fernando

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  2. Hi Kevin,

    Has market conditions changed your systems positive performance?

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  3. Fernando - It is darn close, which suggests that I am either extremely unlucky (after all, there was a 5% chance of this happening), or the system is off track. I tend to think the latter. I probably will stick it out for a little while longer - my initial plan back in December 2011 was to ride this up (hopefully) or down to as low as $2K before giving up. I see no reason to change my plan (although a good argument could be made for giving up now).

    Trin - June was a weird month, for almost all my systems, even ones completely unrelated to the contest system. So, I'm not sure of root cause, but the market is obviously doing something many of my systems do not like.

    Thanks for the comments!

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