Survey Results - Part 1

Thanks to everyone who participated in my survey.  The next 2 or 3 posts will present the results.  Hopefully, knowing the results of a large group of people will give you some guidance into what is "best."

As a reminder, here were the questions:

1. What kind of trader would you consider yourself?

2. Do you perform historical testing before trading a strategy with real money?

3. For the past 3 years, how would you describe your real money trading results?

Here are the results:

1. What kind of trader would you consider yourself?

2. Do you perform historical testing before trading a strategy with real money?

3. For the past 3 years, how would you describe your real money trading results?

In the next post, I'll dig a bit deeper and try to find out answers to questions like:

"What type of trader is more likely to be profitable?"

"Does backtesting length influence future profits?"

Etc.

STAY TUNED!!


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I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.

If you like my blog, please vote!

A Robot Trader Becomes Human

Vote here:  http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc

Survey Still Open

I still have the 3 question survey open.  The link is below, and I will share the results with everyone.

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/QP9QVN2


Thanks in advance!


************************************************************************

I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.

If you like my blog, please vote!

A Robot Trader Becomes Human

Vote here:  http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc

Discretionary Trading - Update

I am still testing and evaluating possible techniques to trade, so I have not gone "live" yet.  I am struggling with a couple of things right now:

1.  How much historical testing should I do?

2.  How much discretion should I build into the system?

I have thought a lot about these topics, but I still don't have solid answers to these questions.

I suspect I am not alone in this regard.  So, I have created a survey for all readers.  It is simple, anonymous and only 3 questions long.  I will share results in a week or so with everyone who takes the survey.  I think it will be a big help to all of us.

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/QP9QVN2


Thanks in advance!


************************************************************************

I am honored that this blog, "A Robot Trader Becomes Human," has been nominated as "Best Trading Blog of 2012" by the good folks at TraderPlanet.com.

If you like my blog, please vote!

A Robot Trader Becomes Human

Vote here:  http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc

Award Finalist - Please Vote For This Blog!

This blog has been honored with a nomination by TraderPlanet.com for the Best Trading Blog of 2012.

If you've enjoyed this blog, from my contest account discussion to trading process steps to my current journey into discretionary trading, please vote for me below.

Your votes will encourage me to continue to provide quality information to you!

Thanks!

Kevin

A Robot Trader Becomes Human

Vote here:  http://www.traderplanet.com/l/2Kc

Whoops - Sorry!

As you may know, I have fairly regular free webinars on trading.  I try to announce them on this blog.  Unfortunately, my last one, "Unorthodox Entries," I neglected to inform blog readers about.

Good news is that I recorded it, so if you want to listen to it, just shoot me an e-mail.  I will immediately respond with the link for you. kdavey @ kjtradingsystems.com


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Now for my discretionary system...

I gave up on the Forex broker I was going to use, as I could not trust their charting platform.  I got my deposit back over the weekend.  The odd thing was I was actually a bit worried about getting it back - that's how "spooked" I am about this whole industry since the MFG and PFG scandals.

As far as a new forex broker, I am now looking at Euro futures, not Forex.  This is a major switch.  I trust the data better, don't have to worry about dealing desks, and it is more regulated (although being more regulated, I'll admit, did not help me with PFG!).  But the position sizing will be tougher (which means, I'll have to risk more to get the same return), and I'll probably pay more in transaction costs.  Pros and cons to each market.


I am still looking at entries for this system.  I don't know if it is good or bad, but I seem to be turning this project into a mechanical system - one that can be automated.  I'm not sure that is where I want to go - it certainly is not where I planned to go -  but I am keeping an open mind.


Maybe I am evolving this way because historically I much more successful at mechanical trading (for example: my World Cup contest accts, my Trender, SFE and Congress ES systems on my website) than I am at discretionary trading.  That is not to say that I am a "bad" discretionary trader, but I was not a consistent earner with such a method, not necessarily a net loser.  To me, that is "bad."

So, we'll see where this journey takes us!  

Houston, We Have A Problem

Well, it seems like I cannot get this strategy off the ground and trading real money...

My latest problem is on 1 minute bars, with the proprietary platform of my forex broker.  If I use their MT4 interface, everything is fine.  If I use their proprietary platform, and shut it down and turn it back on, I get different looking 1 minute bars.  See below:

Since I did my backtesting with this platform, I consider ALL RESULTS INVALID.

So, I have multiple options at this point:

1.  Just keep going with the incorrect proprietary platform, realizing that my live results will probably not match my backtest, due to the charting issue above

2.  Use my broker's MT4 platform (which has a terrible order entry window, although I could change it if I learned MT4 programming).  I'd redo the backtest in this platform

3.  Go to a different Forex broker, but likely pay higher spreads.  Redo backtest.

4.  Use the Euro futures instead, although this means that some of my position sizing (using micro and mini Forex lots, in addition to regular size lots) will be invalid.  Redo backtest, although I could likely program most of what I am doing.

5.  Chuck the whole project, move on to something else.


I am going to evaluate each option, and come to a decision soon.  Until then, no paper trading, and no real money trading.  VERY disappointing!

Getting Closer

OK, I am getting closer to trading live.  Here's an update...

As I mentioned before, at least some of my trading strategy is based on Bob Volman's Forex Price Action Scalping book.  He uses a 70 tick chart.  I am not, because:
1.  The tick count for my broker's platform depends on the first bar in memory, which is different each time.  So, trying to backtest it yields unreliable results - sometimes a signal will trigger, but if tick count is off a little bit, sometimes it won't.
2.  Tick count in Forex mean different things to different brokers, AND probably will not match up well.  I want a method that is broker agnostic.

So, I will be using a 1 minute chart.  Then, I should be able to pick just about any broker, should the need arise.  Plus, I really do not like the platform of my current broker, so I may move soon (I do like their spreads, though).


I am still at 2 unique entries, and 50/50 entries (meaning, for example, 10 pip profit or 10 pip stop).  Of course, those aren;t really 50/50 entries once you factor in the spread.

Volman also advocates using market orders to enter.  I may do this, but I am also looking at limit and stop entries, to get more consistent fills.  I think entering at market all the time will cost me money.


SO, the plan is to trade sim for a few more days, and maybe go live mid week.


I still owe you a post on how I'll track my performance, and that will be coming soon...

Still Working out Details

I am still working out some details on my new discretionary system.  I think I am on the right track, and I may start live on Monday.

So, be sure to check back Monday afternoon/evening!