Formerly "Trading In A Futures Contest - 2012" - My trading journey - a mechanical trader trying to make a discretionary approach succeed.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Can You Make Money Everyday?
This was a comment from an earlier post. It is such a good question, I thought it best to answer as a blog post...
"Good stuff Kevin. I tire hearing of the "make a little each and every day" mentality. Maybe it can be done, but I've yet to see any documented equity curves of anybody doing it. Lord knows I've tried...Funny thing is, seems the less you worry about chasing the ideal of "steady income" the easier it is to be profitable at the end of the year.
In my experience, most if not all of the year's profits come in less than 6 months and sometimes from even just a few great months.
I've questioned a few popular authors/educators on this, but all they ever give is the impression that they or an unnamed "friend" are profitable nearly every day. Of course, there is always some excuse why they cannot provide any kind of documentation of this.
In your opinion, are they selling a pipe dream or do you personally know of anyone profitable on a nearly daily basis over a period of years? And I don't mean the kind of trader that makes a little every day then loses a year's worth of work in a day or two.
Sorry for the long, rambling post but I wanted to year your thoughts as you are one of the few that speak the truth."
Thanks!
In regards to being consistently profitable, I posted almost the same question recently in the Tradestation user forums. I was interested in finding out 1) if anyone truly was consistently profitable and 2) how they did it.
No one stepped forward, although one person was a "make money every day until I blow up" type. He was selling options. He did eventually blow up.
I, too, see lots of people claiming to make money every day trading. Maybe they are, and I'm doing everything wrong in making money only about 50-60% of days. BUT, I've never seen actual proof of these "money machines."
It is kind of like Big Foot or the Loch Ness Monster - lots of people claim to have seen it, or know a friend who has seen it, but until you personally see and touch it, you have to wonder if it even exists.
My guess is that 99% of people selling a method that they claim can make money everyday are lying.
Old floor traders would make money nearly every day, and scalpers and high frequency traders might too. Note, though that both of these groups have a distinct advantage (location, technology, resources) that the rest of us do not have. But, it seems to be pretty hard to do for the average retail trader.
So, my opinion is that it (making money almost every day, year after year) theoretically can be done, but for 99% of us out there, it can't be done. And we should not even try! Instead, go with methods that make money long term, but not necessarily each and every day.
Note: I am totally open to being proven wrong on this. Just e-mail me if you are a consistent daily money maker, and we can talk.
By the way, I was able to dig up my 2005 monthly equity curve in the contest. As you can see, I had a 30% drawdown on a monthly basis, so I'm sure on a daily basis it was even greater than that.
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Thanks for the post Kevin. I too am open to being proven wrong on this. I agree with your 99% assesment above. The problem is, nearly everyone reading this post will assume they are in that 1%!!! A person can waste a lot of their life learning that they are not.
ReplyDeletePhilip
You need to define the time frame. A position trader who holds trades for days to weeks or even months will have lots of losing days and even weeks and months. As you said, they need to measure their success by the year. Someone who day trades however must go by the results of each day. A profitable day trader should make money most days, almost every week and every month.
ReplyDeleteYes, you are right. Unfortunately, a lot of marketers out there make it seem like making money everyday as a day trader is pretty easy.
ReplyDeleteI've personally found that longer term trading is more profitable, even if many months, days and weeks are not profitable.
"A profitable day trader should make money most days, almost every week and every month."
ReplyDeleteYes, that is the lure of it all. I'd love to see proof of a trader that actually does this.
Philip